So I recently became a fan a A Song of Ice and Fire (ASOIAF). To be honest, I’ve never been so addicted to something for a long time. This series is just, great, really great. My girlfriend convinced me that Game of Thrones (GoT) is a fabulous show, then I started to read books and dig into the rabbit hole of theories. Yet I’m still on the first book (almost done!), I do read A LOT of theories. Some are just bullshit like Bolt-On (Roose Bolton is a white walker or vampire wearing human skin), some are really convincing (R+L = J). I just want to write down some theories that I believe is somewhat true. But you know, a theory is always a theory: a pretty solid theory in one’s mind maybe rather laughable in other’s. So if you do not agree with me, just laugh it out.
Oh just a quick explanation of what is a theory. Since George RR Martin is a shitty slow ADHD writer, he only wrote 5/7 of the series. And the sixth book, the Winds of Winter, according to him, is always 2/3 complete for like 12 years. So yeah, there are a lot of conspiracies, plots, and mysteries here (e.g. who the fuck is the mother of Jon Snow, one of the main characters). Over these years, people read those 5 books over and over and over again, trying to solve these unexplained shit. Those ‘hypothesis’ are called theories.
(me myself is a half theoretical neuroscience phd student, so if you are familiar with physics or math, the theory here may not be the theory you thought)
(**And Spoiler Alert!!!! ** but if you don’t mind spoilers just like me, plz go ahead)
R+L = J
$X+Y = Z$ is a gerneal formula in asoiaf representing Z is the child of X and Y. R = Regaher Targaryen, L = Lyanna Stark, J = Jon Snow.
So it basically says Jon you-know-nothing Snow is the son of Prince Regaher and Lyanna Stark (the sister of Ned). I mean, hey, it’s even not a secret! There are multiple hints in the books. And it’s even confirmed in the TV series. Although Martin do leave some flexible explanations, I do not think it’s a bebating topic. R+L = J is almost not a theory, it’s a fact.
Night Lamp
So in the Book 4 & 5, Stannis went to the Wall, then marching south to face Boltons. While the Boltons were turtled in Winterfell, its alley, Freys tries to attack Stannis. And Stannis’ army was not in a good shape: lack of supplies, long march, short handed. To make things even worse, there is a terrible snow strom, making soilder barely see anything. Now the situation is both Stannis and Freys are trapped in the strom, and Stannis’s army currently camped is an abandoned villiage surrounded by an frozen lake. What should Stannis do?
The Night Lamp theory says Stannis will win this battle by luring Freys to the frozen lake then let them drown by breaking the ice. Due to the low visibility, there is burning beacon on the center of the camp of Stannis showing the right direction. However, there is a also giant dead tree on a island in the lake. By turning off the true beacon and burning the tree, the tree thus became a false beacon, luring Freys to the wrong direction and causing them stepping on the fragile ice. Stannis will then break the ice and have a easy win.
It’s like a Night Lamp, attracting moths to a death trap. Stannis is a talented commander (Tywin said the only threat is Stannis), and during his time on the master of ships, he knows on the ‘three sisters’, the locals will set a false baecon during strom to lure to nearby ship to hit rocks, the pirate the goods on the ships. So maybe that’s the inspiration of this plan.
For more details, here is a blog doing fabulous analysis. Anyway, it’s a really solid theory and well-believed by fans.
Varys is a Targaryen
People always wonder what varys is up to. In the TV series GoT, Varys is like a communism saint, for the people and for the relam, yet it may not be the case in the books. We know that Varys are developing some secret plots with Illyrio to throw out the Barratheon Dynasty. They support Daenerys. Illyrio (and Varys) also supports Aegon Targaryen, claiming he is the still living son of Regaher, though people are suspecting Aegon is a Blackfrye instead. Also, during Robert’s rebellion, when Tywin’s army is at the gate of King’s landing, Varys tried to pursuade Aerys not to open the gate, though the mad king opened it anyway and letting the Targaryen family butchered by Tywin.
So if you review all Varys did, you will find he is not another little finger, causing chaos to climb the ladder (which is dumb btw). Instead, he always try to protect the interest of Targaryen. This doesn’t necessarily making him a Targaryen, maybe he is just a royalist. But there are more clues
Varys is a eunuch. When he was in a trope of mummers in Myr, a guy offered his master a hugh amount of money for his cock for some blood magic. But why? Slavery is common in Myr, if you just need a stupid cock, you can always buy one from a slave with a much lower price. And it’s for blond magic. From Melisandre and the mage who some believed killed Drogo, we know you can’t use arbitray blood for blood magic. It have to be noble somehow, like the blood of kings. So Varys has to have noble blood to attarct random guys cutting off his cock. And which noble family? You can always answer Targaryen.
Then there are some not so convicing evidence:
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He is Bald. Just like Egg, he may shave off his silver hear to hide his identity. This sounds dumb since Tywin or Walter White is definitely not a Targaryen. But hey, we have more
- He cannot family any children, which means he cannot have children looks like a Targaryen.
- He has purple eyes, which is also common feature in Targaryen
- His name ends with ‘rys’, which is pretty common of Targaryen (or maybe is a common valaryian name in Myr, idk)
If we combine all the evidence. A bald guy like egg, with noble blood and purple eyes truly supports Targaryen. I would say 80% he is a secret Targaryen (including Blackfrye, which is basically a Targaryen branch from a legit bastard).
Blackfyre Rebellion is Important
In book 5, the young Aegon Targaryen, supported by Illyion and Golden Company, claiming that he is the son of Regaher, true heir of the seven kingdom, landed on the storm lands. However, fans always suspect he is the son the Illyion and he is a Blackfrye, but WTF is Blackfrye?
So Blackfrye is a sword waved by Aegon the Conquere, then passed to his descendent. However, Aegon IV legitimatized all his bastards and gave this sword to his elderest baster, Daemon. When Aegon IV died, Daemon Blackfyre threw a rebellion agaisnt the king Daeron, though he failed anyway. But Daemon’s family is pretty stubborn. They just rebelled, failed, rebelled, failed over and over again, resulting in five Blackfyre rebellion sin total. And some of the consequences still have impact till today.
- During the First Blackfrye rebellion, Daemon I fought with Aegor Rivers, the Bittersteel. Bittersteel latter escaped to Essos, forming the Golden Company, which fought for Blackfyre for 3 out of 4 following rebellion. And now, Golden Company supports the young Aegon.
- Bryden Rivers, or Bloody Raven is a bastard of Aegon IV. Instead of becoming a blackfrye, he is a royalist. He gave Daemon I the final shot and later became the hand of king. He was a iron fist ruler and always see the BlackFrye as the top threat. In the end he became the Three Eyes Raven.
- In the first rebellion, if we forget the bloodline, Daemon is generally considered as a much better king, yet he failed anyway, leaving so much bloodshed later on. May things will be better if Daemon won? And now, the young Aegon (Blackfrye) tried to conquer the throne, and he is pretty decent actually. Dany surely has a better claim, but she is definitely not a qualified ruler and she has some potential to be like mad king. So the situation now is like the first Blackfyre rebellion, but maybe the result will be different?
- Bryden Rivers killed another BlackFrye heir in an unhonorable way. This makes the new king, Aegon V (or Egg, who is also important) sent him to the nightwatchers. Along with him was Maester Aemon, who volunteerly went to the Wall.
- During the fifth rebellion (or war of the ninepenny kings), many lords made their reputation, including Steffon Baratheon (father of Robert Baratheon), Bryndenn Tully, Tywin Lannister, Aerys Targaryen (the mad king but has not gone mad yet) and Barristan Selmy. Barristan killed the last male Blackfrye, making him into the kingsguard. During the war, Tywin and Aerys became good buddies (they didn’t end well tho). Tullys, Starks, Baratheons and Arynns played well, which later formed an alliance during the Robert’s rebellion. Lord Tully and Lord Baelish fought side by side, and Lord Baelish sent his son, Petyr (later becomes little finger) to Riverrun as a ward.
And now there are some evidence supporting today’s Aegon is a Blackfrye in female line. So yeah, I guess Blackfyre seems to be important….
Egg’s Summer Hall Sacrifice Succeeded in Some Way
Cool but what is Summer Hall Experiment? Who is Egg?
When George Martin messed up the fifth book, where drogons play literally no role in A Dance Of Dragon, he realized he just cannot complete the sixth book on time. He tend to write some short story in the framework of asoiaf to grind some easy money instead. One of the storys is our beloved Dunk and Egg. Egg is the nick name of Aegon V Targaryen, who is also called Aegon the unlikely. He is the youngest son of his king father, yet became the rightful king in the end. When he was still a little Timmy, he traveled around Westeros with a bald head to hide his identity with a commoner knight, Dunk the Tall. Tbh i haven’t read the book, but people said it’s like the first season of Mandalorian.
Anyway, egg was a good king, yet he was troubled by the prophecies and vague dreams in his late years. During his time, the dragons were gone for like 100 years. Targaryen became the house of NO dragons. So he began to think about hatching dragons.
In a gathering of royal family in summer hall, a huge fire burst out that killed Aegon, his eldest son, Dunk and a bunch of royal lines. Those who survived chose not to speak of it. This is called the Tragedy of Summer Hall. It’s a mystery and a golden material of conspiracy, and I believed it’s the origin of all the stories of asoiaf.
So what TRUELY happened in summer hall? I believe Egg was using blood magic and sacrafice to hatch dragons, since he dreamt that winter is coming and dragons will return. But we know there was no dragon came out right? So is it another Targaryen mad experimental failure? Well maybe not. We know amongst the flame, Dunk died to protect the birth of Rheagar Targaryen, who was the son of the grandson of Egg (wtf? why so how old was egg then?). And Rheagar was troubled about dragons, winters and this and that dragon dreams. By $R+L = J$, he chose Lyanna to ‘produce’ the promised prince, Jon Snow, or the song of ice and fire, or Azor Ahai perchance.
So maybe Egg’s sacrifice made Rheagar a TRUE dragon, and the dragon blood flow into Jon Snow, making him the promised prince.
Also in you view the full story in a sense of symmetry and fate, there are a few charming results:
- Dunk died to protect Egg’s True dragon, Rheagar.
- Year’s later, Rheagar tried to made another promised prince by fucking Lyanna Stark. And his loyal friend, Arthur Dayne, died to protect Rheagar’s true dragon, Jon Snow
- Egg somehow successfully ‘hatched’ dragons using sacrafice and probably some magic, which happens similarly to Daenerys.
- This makes Jon and Dany both ‘true dragons’. And maybe by the prophecy of Azor Ahai, Jon will kill Dany to recreate the light bringer, end the night once for all.
- Martin loves Egg and Dunk, surely he will give them a meaningful death instead of typical Targaryen madness
Sam is Martin’s Self-insert
Oh man… I mean it’s obvious. Look at Samwell Tarlly, look at Martin. Also Gilly loves Sam out of no reason…. So…..
Jon Snow Will Kill Dany
As being said in the Summer Hall theory, both Jon Snow and Dany are true dragon, or both are Azor Ahai. According the legend of Azor Ahai, he drove his sword into his wife, Nissa Nissa’s beast, and forged the lightbringer using her blood and soul. So yeah, maybe to become an Azor Ahai, you need some kind of sacrifice? And who is that sacrafice?
In season 8 of GoT, Dany became mad and burned down whole King’s landing. Jon had no choice but to kill Dany. Although DnD messed up the whole season, this plot is the supposed ending as what Martin told them. But why she did those horrible things? Are there hints in the books suggesting Dany’s fate?
Well yes:
- First Dany is so obbessed with the Iron Throne and also thought people in Westeros will welcome her. But what if it’s not the case? People in Kings Landing do NOT give a shit on who sits on the Iron Throne
- Dany is stubbron and ruthless. She get huge ego (I’m the Daenerys the Stormborn, the Unburnt, Khaleessi of the great grass sea, the Queen of the Andals and the blablabla…) and she has three dragons. Her favorite is ‘Dracarys’, aka ‘Burn them all’ like her father. She never encountered any major failure after Drogo’s death. And she just burn burn burn. All other characters suffered from consequences from their action (especially frome their mistakes, idk like Edd or Jaime), but Dany just didn’t. Maybe Dany is a reflection of Martin’s past secret love in high school but get rejected after the prom so that Martin become so obbessed with Dany like an incel. All Dany learnt is Dracarys (look at what she did when buying the unsullied, is that a way of doing business? how’s your reputation? Are you going to rule like that? Is Dany even a qualified ruler? Or is Dany a tyrant herself?). But what if Dracarys doesn’t work? What if her ruthless iron fist hitting cottons? What will she do then?
- Someone believes Aegon (young Griffin) is a better ruler, yet in terms of bloodline, Dany is a more rightful heir. Suppose that people in Westeros welcomes Aegon instead of Dany, what will she do? Will she Dracarys Aegon? Will she Dracarys the people in Kings Landing simply because they support Aegon more? ‘These filthy creatures with NO integrity and honor is not worth my mercy, what they deserve is only Dracarys, just BURN THEM ALL’
- Oh btw, Jon Snow is the son of Rheagar. So if Rheagar and Lyanna had a legit marriage. Jon Snow is a more rightful heir to the throne. What say you, Dany?
- If Jon Snow sacrafice Dany to reforge the lightbringer, it will fit perfectly with the prophecy. And it’s going to be a dramatic heart-breaking tragedy as the climax of the song of ICE and FIRE. It’s gonna be beautiful.
Drogo became a Dragon
It is said the Dragon Drogo is the reincarnation of Khal Drogo. I firmly believe this. The only reason is that Khal Drogo is my favorite character in the ENTIRE series. He didn’t die. He became a dragon.
Honorable Mention: Tyrion is the Time-traveling Son of Dany & Drogo
This is bullshit i know and i do not believe it. But this is a example of good theory. A good theory should fit into the whole story and other theories as well. Bad stories, in the other hand, are just picking-up-random-words-from-nowhere.
Bolt-on (Roose Bolton is a skin-changing vampire/white walker) is a bad theory, since the only reference is the discription of his appreance saying his cold and non-human. Man it’s just literary tricks! It’s basically saying he is a strict, cold and cunning, and nothing else. Another example of bad theory is two moon theory. Simply because a random Drosraki girl told Dany the world once has two moon, and one day one of them broke out and dragons were hatched from it. So the world is word-for-word had two moons according that horse girl. It’s just straightup stupid.
Of course Tyrion is NOT a time-traveling son of Dany & Drogo, but this shit theory somehow unifies many other shit theories, and has decent self-consistency. Here are some bulletpoints:
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Some are suspecting Tyrion is a secret Targaryen (haha), so he is the son of Aerys and Tywin’s wife. But instead of this hypothesis, Tyrion could also be the son of Dany, also making him a Targaryen! Whoooo!
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Tyrion is a half man, but why is that? And why he doesn’t looks like a Targaryen? (yes he has some features, but not all of them. Look at the Viserays the Crowned and then look at the drawf…) Well we know during the ritual of blood magic, Dany gave a birth to a twisted dragon (or lizzard)-like dead creature, which is her son. Ehhhh man that’s wierd, what happened here? In fact, That’s only the half of her son! Another half is Tyrion who traveled back in time because of the blood magic, making him literally a HALF MAN. And the dragon features were left with the dead baby, so Tyrion doesn’t really looks like a Targaryen. Whooo!
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The theory could go further. The Maegi once said
When the sun rises in the west and sets in the east. When the seas go dry and mountains blow in the wind like leaves. When your womb quickens again, and you bear a living child. Then he will return, and not before
People are thinking this is an exaggerating version of saying Drogo will never come back, but what if it’s a PrOpHeCy? The sun represents Quentynl Martell (since his family emblem is a sun). He shipped from the west Drone to the east slave bay to marry Dany, only to be durnt alive when trying to tame a dragon. That’s the sun rises in the west and sets in the east. The sea here means the drosraki sea. The grass sea dried out after the leaving of Horse dudes (what?). And the mountains are the pyrimids of Meereen, which later were blowed like leaves under Dracarys. Oh there is Dany bearing another baby? Idk man let’s just forget about it. But all that are indicating HE will return. But the HE could be Drogo, or Drogo’s son, Tyrion. And Tyrion is on his way to join Dany in the 5th book, so HE WILL RETURN
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Tyrion is Martin’s favorite character, but he killed his father. Kinslaying is a taboo is Westeros and is cursed. So Tyrion seems to have a tough fate ahead of him. Only if Tywin is not his father….
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Tyrion is fierce with his tomahawk, maybe that’s because of Drogo’s blood.
Quick Summary
So that’s it. There are many other solid theories not introduced here since they are too obvious (like Robert Strong is zombie Mountain, or Baelon Greyjoy was assisanated by Euron) Theories are for fun, just don’t take it too seriously. Martin himself cannot complete the sixth book and leaves toooo many plot holes and conspiracy explanation. It’s like coffee, two cups of a day is great, but if you drink too much, it’s simply not good.
And this guy Martin sucks, like 13 years for a 2/3 complete, what the hell are you doing? Many people hope he will live long enough to finish the series, but to this point I would prefer him die early. He is not working on the TWOW as long as he still lives. But he can leave some raw ideas and draft plotline after he pass away and let someone else finish it. After all, it’s still GaRdEnInG, right Martin?